经过近40年快速发展，中国经济块头大了，个子高了，但还不够结实强壮，总体上仍处在国际产业链条的中低端，与美国还有较大差距。中美经济有竞争的一面，但互补性远大于竞争性，双方合作空间不是缩小了，而是扩大了。
After nearly 40 years of rapid growth, China’s economy is bigger in size but not sturdy enough. China is still at the lower ends of the global industrial chain, lagging far behind the United States. The Chinese and US economies do have a competitive dimension, but there is far greater complementarity than competition. The two countries have seen the space for cooperation expanded rather than narrowed.
中国经济仍将保持中高速增长，正在向中高端迈进，传统产业加快转型升级，新兴产业蓬勃兴起，美国各类先进技术、关键设备、重要零部件对华出口潜力巨大。但遗憾的是，受美方陈旧的出口管制法规政策影响，美国企业没有获得应有的“蛋糕”。2001年美国对华高技术产品出口，占中国同类产品进口的16.7%，去年这一比重降至8.2%。以集成电路为例，去年中国进口总额高达2270亿美元，超过原油、铁矿砂、初级塑料三种大宗商品进口总额，但美国只占4%的份额。根据卡内基国际和平基金会今年4月的报告，如果美国将对华出口管制程度降至对巴西的水平，对华贸易逆差最多可缩减24%;如果降至对法国的水平，最多可缩减34%。
The Chinese economy will continue to grow at a medium-high speed and climb higher on the value chain. As China’s traditional industries are transformed and upgraded at a faster pace and emerging industries flourish, there is huge market potential to tap for US exports of advanced technologies, key equipment and critical parts to China. Unfortunately, American businesses have not had their fair share of the “cake” due to outdated US regulations on export control. In 2001, US high-tech export to China accounted for 16.7 percent of China’s total import of such products, while last year the percentage dropped to 8.2 percent. For instance, China’s import of integrated circuits (IC) amounted to a whopping $227 billion last year, more than the import of crude oil, iron ore and primary plastics combined. But only 4 percent of China’s IC import came from the United States. According to an Op-Ed by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace last April, if the United States were to liberalize its export barriers against China to the same level as those applicable to Brazil or France, the US trade deficit with China would narrow by up to 24 percent and 34 percent respectively.
中国中等收入人群达3亿人，居民消费结构正在从满足温饱向追求品质转变、从线下消费向线上消费转变，对美国高品质商品和优质服务的需求与日俱增。去年中国访美游客约300万人次，人均花费超过1.1万美元，为美国创造了15万个工作岗位。目前，中国网络购物用户超过4.6亿。美国的车厘子、龙虾、海蟹、坚果、保健品等热销产品，72小时就可送达中国千家万户，去年对华跨境电商出口增长100%以上。上个月阿里巴巴集团在底特律举办“美国中小企业论坛”，吸引3000多家美国中小企业参加，他们都迫切希望搭上互联网的快车，进军中国广阔的消费市场。
China now has 300 million people in the middle-income group. The pattern of residential consumption is shifting from basic livelihood to greater emphasis on quality, and from offline to online. Their demand for quality US goods and services is also swelling by the day. Last year, Chinese tourists made about 3 million visits to the United States with a per capita spending of over $11,000, which helped to create 150,000 local jobs. China’s online-shoppers number over 460 million. Popular American products such as cherries, lobsters, sea crabs, nuts and health supplements can reach Chinese households within 72 hours. American export to China via e-commerce surged by more than 100 percent last year. The “Gateway ‘17” conference held by Alibaba Group in Detroit last month attracted over 3,000 American SMEs, as they are eager to get a fast ride of the Internet to tap into China’s vast consumer market.
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