He is telling clients to load up on high-quality U.S. large-cap stocks, as well as on global multinational corporations that are benefiting from U.S. stability and stronger growth in emerging markets.
He is telling clients to load up on high-quality U.S. large-cap stocks, as well as on global multinational corporations that are benefiting from U.S. stability and stronger growth in emerging markets. (For more on dividend-stock strategies, see this week's Upside column, page B7.)
他建议客户增持高质量的美国大市值股票，以及那些能从美国保持稳定和新兴市场增长加速中获益的全球跨国公司股票。
With the Bush-era tax cuts for dividends set to expire in 2013, Mr. Levkovich says investors should consider companies that are in a position to raise debt in order to issue special one-time payouts before year-end. In a recent report, Mr. Levkovich said companies like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, FCX +0.08% Marathon Oil MRO -0.95% and Best Buy BBY -0.69% could be candidates for such payouts, based on a screen that looked at debt levels and other measures.
由于小布什(Bush)执政期间的股息减税政策即将于2013年到期，莱夫科维奇建议投资者考虑持有那些有能力在今年年底发行债券用于一次性特别分红的上市公司。在最近一份研究报告中，莱夫科维奇根据对负债水平和其他一些指标的分析，推荐的是弗里波特-麦克莫兰铜金公司(Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold)、马拉松石油公司(Marathon Oil)和百思买公司(Best Buy)。
Cyclical Stocks 周期性股票
Investors looking for a riskier bet should consider stocks in more economically sensitive sectors of the market known as 'cyclicals,' including tech and energy, some strategists say. Such companies could see a pop if potential economic problems are resolved.
一些策略师表示，追求高风险高收益的投资者可以考虑对经济环境更为敏感的“周期性”板块，包括高科技和能源类股票等。如果经济方面的潜在问题得以解决，这些上市公司的表现会有长足进步。
For example, cyclical stocks could benefit if U.S. economic data improve this fall after the early summer's run of soft numbers, says Barry Knapp, chief equity strategist at Barclays BARC.LN +3.57% . They also could rally if the U.S. elections provide clarity on taxes and budget cuts.
巴克莱(Barclays)首席股票策略师巴里 纳普(Barry Knapp)说，举例而言，如果美国的经济数据继今年夏初的疲软后有所复苏，周期性股票将获益良多。如果美国大选在税收政策和预算削减问题上扫清迷雾，这些股票也可能大涨。
A lower-risk, if more complicated, bet would be buying call options, which give investors the chance to buy an asset at a predetermined price, on industrial stocks, Mr. Knapp says.
纳普说，一个风险相对较低、但可能更为复杂的做法是买入工业类股票的看涨期权，从而让投资者能以事先确定的价格购买资产。
Cyclical stocks also have the benefit of being cheap. In the three months since the market's recent low on June 12, the S&P 500 rallied 8.5%, but cyclicals underperformed 'defensive' stocks by about 0.3%, according to Credit Suisse CSGN.VX +2.26% research.
周期性股票还有一个好处，就是便宜。据瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse)的数据，从2012年6月12日的市场近期低点以来，近三个月标普500指数上扬了8.5%，但周期性股票的表现落后于“防御型”股票0.3个百分点左右。
That is highly unusual: During the past 30 years, it has happened just 10 times, the last time in 2006. During six of those episodes, the markets continued to rally, with cyclical stocks taking the lead.
这十分不正常：过去30年来，这种情况只发生过10次，最近一次是在2006年。在这10次中，有六次市场继续上涨，而领军的正是周期性股票。
Energy stocks now have a 12-month forward price/earnings ratio of 11.5, compared with the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 12.8. Industrial stocks have a P/E ratio of 12.6.
目前，能源类股票的未来12个月市盈率(P/E)为11.5，而标普500指数的市盈率为12.8，工业类股票的市盈率为12.6。
Low-cost exchange-traded funds that track cyclical stocks include the Industrial Select Sector SPDR XLI +0.49% and the Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE -0.04% .
投资者可以选择低成本的跟踪周期性股票的交易所交易基金(ETF)，如Industrial Select Sector SPDR和Energy Select Sector SPDR等。
Emerging-Market Bonds 新兴市场债券 Despite the slowdown in economic growth that has hit much of the developing world, bonds issued by emerging-market nations still look attractive. Such markets used to be considered debt-laden and volatile; these days they offer cleaner balance sheets and economic growth.
虽然许多发展中国家的经济增长都出现放缓，但新兴市场国家发行的债券依然具有吸引力。以往人们认为这些国家的债务水平高，市场波动性大，但现在看来，新兴国家的资产负债表更健康，经济增长能力较强。
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