Dire predictions of market collapses and economic gloom in 2012 have so far proven overly pessimistic. But what should investors do to continue making money the rest of the year?
有些人曾预测2012年金融市场可能崩溃，经济前景一片黯淡，但从目前来看，这一预测过于悲观。投资者该如何去做，才能在今年余下的几个月里继续赚钱？ In January, many expected Europe's debt woes to spread from Greece to the rest of the euro zone, China's economic growth rate to falter and the U.S. to be once again gripped by a midyear market scare, if not necessarily one triggered by a debt-ceiling debate and a debt downgrade. 2012年1月，许多人认为欧债危机会从希腊蔓延到整个欧元区，中国经济增速徘徊不前，美国股市将在年中因债务上限争论或债务降级等因素再度遭遇抛售恐慌。 Given those concerns, many investors predicted the price of U.S. Treasurys, which do well when investors are fearful, would rise and the price of stocks and other risky assets would fall. 在这种考虑下，很多投资者认为美国国债（往往在市场恐慌时表现较好）的价格会上涨，股票和其他风险资产的价格会下跌。 Treasury prices did indeed rise, while their yields, which move in the opposite direction, fell to record lows. But the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has gained nearly 14% so far this year, while high-yield 'junk' bonds have returned nearly 10%. In fact, most major asset classes are in positive territory for the year. 国债价格确实上涨了，与国债价格反向运动的国债收益率跌至历史低位，但标普500股票指数(Standard & Poor's 500-stock index)今年至今也已上涨近14%，高收益“垃圾债券”的回报率接近10%。事实上，今年大多数的主流资产类别都实现了正收益。 Behind the solid performance: European policy makers have been proactive in dealing with the Continent's problems, the decline in China's growth rate might be coming to an end, and the U.S. economy hasn't slipped into a recession. 支撑这些坚实投资业绩的是：欧洲政策制定者积极主动应对欧洲大陆面临的各种问题，中国的经济增长率可能止跌回升，美国也没有陷入另一次经济衰退之中。 Yet substantial uncertainties remain, ranging from the Federal Reserve decision on whether to launch another round of bond buying, China's leadership transition and Europe's wobbly single-currency zone. 不过，未来还有很大的不确定性，如美联储(Federal Reserve)会不会展开新一轮的国债购买行动，中国领导层的交接问题，以及欧洲摇摇欲坠的单一货币体制等。 To top it off, the U.S. elections in November could determine whether taxes rise or fall next year, and whether budget cuts will take a big chunk out of the gross domestic product. 此外，美国11月份的大选将决定明年税收政策的起伏，以及预算削减是否会给国内生产总值(GDP)带来较大的不利影响。 'There are a lot of stresses in the global marketplace and events that could lead to volatility,' says Phil Sharkey, head of investments for the New York metropolitan region at Citi Private Bank. 'You have an opportunity to look at where your portfolio is and consider whether or not you can make some changes.' 花旗私人银行(Citi Private Bank)负责纽约大都市区域投资业务的主管菲尔 沙奇(Phil Sharkey)说，“全球市场还存在很多压力，突发事件风险较大，这都可能导致市场出现波动。你现在可以审视一下自己的投资组合，看看是否有需要调整的地方。” The key for investors is to find investments that still have room to rally during the next four months, but also can weather the potential downturns. Here are six ideas, culled from interviews with money managers and other experts: 对投资者来说，最关键的是要找到一些投资品种，既能在今年未来四个月中保持上涨空间，又能抵御经济低迷的风险。《华尔街日报》采访了投资经理和其他一些专家，总结出以下六大投资思路： High-Yield Bonds 高收益债券 Yes, corporate junk bonds have rallied nearly 10% this year. And, yes, their yields have dropped to 6.87%, near their lowest level in at least 15 years. Still, the asset class offers the chance to earn solid returns for the rest of the year. 没错，企业垃圾债券今年已经上涨近10%；没错，它们的收益率已跌至6.87%，接近至少15年以来的最低点。不过，在未来数月，该资产类别仍有机会获得良好的投资收益。 Default rates are low, as the economy is doing just well enough for issuers to make their payments-and the Federal Reserve has promised to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels. 'You're kind of in the sweet spot,' says Eric Stein, manager of the Eaton Vance Strategic Income fund, which had 29% of its $2.9 billion portfolio in high-yield investments as of June 30.
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