中国经济要靠内需拉动

The gloomy mantra about China's investment-heavy growth model has become familiar. Getting less attention are the changes that could start to ping consumption humming to life.

　　人们动辄就会说，中国的增长模式是靠投资拉动，这种令人沮丧的说法我们已经再熟悉不过了。其实中国已经出现了一些变化，国内消费可能开始增加，只不过人们还没太注意到这一点罢了。

　　China's growth rate for the first quarter slowed but wasn't slow. Zhang Xiaoqiang, a senior official at the National Development and Reform Commission, recently hinted that first-quarter gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of about 8.4%.

　　中国今年第一季度增速虽放缓，但其实也并不慢。中国国家发展和改革委员会高级官员张晓强前不久表示，今年一季度国内生产总值(GDP)年化增长率约为8.4%。

　　If that is borne out when the data are published Friday, it would be lower than the 8.9% pace in the final quarter of 2011, and the lowest level since the second quarter of 2009─but not the collapse some had feared.

　　相关报道调查：中国经济硬着陆可能性不大

　　While that should ease concerns in financial markets about China's immediate growth prospects, the numbers on the structure of the economy are cause for concern. Investment as a share of GDP in 　　2010 came in at 48%. That's too high. South Korea's investment as a share of GDP topped out at 40% in 1991.

　　观点：中国经济盛宴即将曲终人散？

　　Overinvestment is problematic because it risks misallocation of capital on a grand scale. If it persists for many more years, the result will be trade tensions as surplus production spills into global markets, worsening environmental degradation and bankruptcy for overextended Chinese companies.

　　博客：中国高腐败与高增长共存之谜

　　To foster sustainable growth, China needs to shift to a new model, where investment takes a peak and household consumption steps up as the new engine.

　　博客：中国经济变革面临双重挑战

　　Getting there won't be easy. But there are hints that things are moving in the right direction. Higher wages for workers and interest rates for savers are putting more money in households' pockets. A generational shift in thinking means those households might just spend some of that money, instead of saving it.

　　如果周五发布的数据证实这一数字，则这将低于2011年第四季度8.9%的增长率，也将创下自2009年第二季度以来的最低增长水平，但这并非是一些人所担心的经济崩溃。

　　A commitment to improve pay and benefits at Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. 2317.TW 0.00%─where hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers make Apple Inc. AAPL +1.50%iPhones and iPads─is a sign of the times.

　　这应当能缓解金融市场对中国短期增长前景的忧虑，但有关中国经济结构的数据仍是人们担忧情绪的根源所在。2010年，投资占中国GDP的比重达48%，实在是太高了。以韩国为例，投资占该国GDP的比重在1991年达到了40%的最高水平。

　　Following a critical report from the Fair Labor Association published at the end of March, Hon Hai─also known as Foxconn─agreed to increase overtime pay for its workers. The Taiwanese manufacturer also said it would improve migrant workers' access to unemploymentinsurance─which the Chinese social-security system makes it difficult to access outside a worker's home province.

　　过度投资是有问题的，因为这可能使得资本出现大规模配置不当。如果这种情况持续多年，那结果将是，剩余生产力溢入全球市场将引发紧张的贸易关系，环境恶化状况将加重，高杠杆化的中国企业将破产。

　　In the past, the problem of low wages has been compounded by a financial sector that dents income by offering households low returns on their saving.

　　为促进可持续增长，中国需要转向一个新模式，让投资步伐缓一缓，扩大居民消费并使其成为推动经济增长的新引擎。

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