Century Town, a vast property development 30km from the centre of the eastern Chinese port city of Qingdao, proclaims its "Spanish building quality" complete with archways and red tiled roofs.
"世纪城"是距中国东部港口城市青岛市市中心30公里处的一处大型房地产开发项目。该项目宣称采用"西班牙建筑风格"，建有拱门和红瓦屋顶。 But the empty apartments and falling prices evoke another side of Spain–the housing market bubble that has savaged the Mediterranean economy. 但空荡荡的公寓和不断下跌的房价令人想起西班牙的另一面：肆虐地中海经济的住房市场泡沫。 The question facing China, say analysts, is whether it will suffer a similar fate, depriving the fragile global economy of its most important growth engine and spelling the end of the past decade's commodity boom. 分析师称，中国面临的问题是，它是否会遭受类似的命运，使得脆弱的全球经济丧失最重要的增长引擎，导致过去十年的大宗商品繁荣结束。 Any answer will lie somewhere between the two different faces of China's property market. In the biggest developed cities, houses are beyond the reach of all but the wealthiest citizens. But in the rest of the country, which represents the majority, property is now more affordable than it has been for years, making developers less inclined to build more. For the government, which has intervened to rein in real estate speculation, the two-speed property market presents a dilemma. With the economy slowing sharply, should it worry more about frothy prices in big cities or weak construction activity elsewhere? 任何答案都将藏于中国房地产市场的双重特征之间。在最大的发达城市，只有最有钱的市民才买得起房子。但在其它的绝大多数城市，人们比前几年更能负担得起房价，这使得开发商不太愿意建造更多的房子。对进行干预以遏制房地产投机的政府而言，双速房地产市场导致了一个两难困境。随着经济急剧放缓，中国政府是更应该担心大城市的房价泡沫，还是更应该担心其它城市建筑活动的低迷？ "Policy makers target the very expensive cities, but these cities account for only about a quarter of national sales volume and the crackdown on them has a nationwide impact," said Rosealea Yao of GK Dragonomics, a research firm. 研究机构龙洲经讯(GK Dragonomics)的咬丽蔷(Rosealea Yao)表示："政策制定者将矛头对准房价非常高的城市，但这些城市的住房销量只占全国的25%左右，同时对它们的打压具有全国性的影响。 "Property construction has accounted for about 15 per cent of China's gross domestic product in recent years and its deceleration has taken a toll on the economy. Growth is forecast to slow to an annual rate of about 7.5 per cent in the current quarter, its slowest since early 2009. 近几年房地产建筑活动约占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的15%，它的减速已对经济造成了影响。预计本季度中国的经济增速将放缓至7.5%左右，为2009年以来的最低水平。 Aware of the dangers, the central government has started to loosen its reins ever so slightly. It has encouraged banks to offer discounts on mortgages to first-time home buyers and has prodded developers to increase the construction of cheaper homes. There are signs the policy shifts are yielding results. Qingdao and other cities have reported a pick-up in home sales in recent weeks. But a debate over the affordability of property remains. 中国中央政府意识到了这些风险，开始极其轻微地放松限制。它鼓励银行向首次购房者提供优惠贷款，并激励开发商加大建造价格较低的住房。有迹象表明政策转变正在收到成效。青岛和其它城市报道称最近几周的房屋销量出现增长。但围绕人们能否买得起住房的争论仍在继续。 In China, economists see a house price-to-income ratio of about seven as reasonable, as was historically the case in fast-developing Asian economies. The norm in rich countries is closer to four. Ms Yao of Dragonomics says the good news is that the nationwide market is fast approaching the preferred level as housing prices edge down while wages climb. The price-to-income ratio for houses peaked at 8.1 in 2009, but fell to 7.4 last year and will decline further this year, according to the Shanghai E-House real estate research institute. 经济学家认为中国房价收入比在7左右时是合理的，历史上其它快速发展的亚洲经济体就是如此。目前富裕国家的房价收入比接近4。龙洲经讯的咬丽蔷表示，好消息是，随着房价微跌和工资增长，全国房地产市场正迅速接近理想水平。根据房地产研究机构上海易居中国(E-House)的数据，中国房价收入比曾在2009年达到8.1的峰值，但去年降至7.4，今年将会进一步下降。
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