Markets have been surprisingly quiet ahead of an autumn that looks set to be full of dramatic economic, financial and political events.
即将到来的秋天注定会迎来一系列戏剧性的经济、金融和政治事件。而在此之前，市场一直出奇的平静。 Money managers say the recent quiet masks uncertainty as they position their portfolios to benefit from a potential rally but also to withstand shocks ranging from upheaval in Europe to further easing by central banks to leadership changes in the worlds' two biggest economies. 投资经理们表示，市场近期的平静掩盖了不确定性。投资经理调整了投资组合，以期从市场可能出现的反弹中获利，同时也准备好接受来自各种事件的冲击，这其中包括欧洲的动荡形势，全球央行推出进一步宽松政策，以及全球两大经济体的领导人更迭。 'We are certainly not ignoring the possibility of downside in the markets,' said Tahnoon Pasha, Asia chief executive officer for equities and fixed income at Aviva Investors in Singapore, where the company manages assets worth just under $6 billion. 英杰华投资集团(Aviva Investors)驻新加坡负责股票和固定收益的亚洲区首席执行长帕沙(Tahnoon Pasha)说：我们当然没有忽略市场出现下跌的可能。英杰华在新加坡管理的资产规模接近60亿美元。 A speech Friday by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at Jackson Hole, Wyo., in some ways kicked off the new season. Mr. Bernanke defended the Fed's monetary policies and raised hopes for more stimulus, pushing up U.S. stocks, gold, oil and prices of 10-year U.S. Treasurys. 美国联邦储备委员会主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)上周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)的讲话从某种意义上说拉开了市场“新赛季”的帷幕。贝南克在讲话中捍卫了美联储的货币政策，令市场相信美联储可能推出更多刺激政策。这一信号推升了美国股市、金价、油价以及10年期美国国债的价格。 Mr. Bernanke's comments are just a foretaste of central bankers' likely rocking of markets. When it comes to Europe, investors are waiting to see whether European Central Bank President Mario Draghi can live up to his promise to do 'whatever it takes' to save the euro. 贝南克的讲话只是一个信号，它预示着全球央行官员可能推出影响市场的重大举措。欧洲的情况是，投资者还在等待观望，他们想看看欧洲央行(European Central Bank)行长德拉吉(Mario Draghi)是否能兑现其此前做出的“不惜一切代价”拯救欧元的承诺。 Some investors took Saturday's news out of China that manufacturing had contracted in August─with the official purchasing-managers index falling to its lowest level in nine months─as an indication that Beijing will boost what has so far been relatively modest stimulus. 在部分投资者看来，上周六传出的有关中国8月制造业活动收缩的消息可能预示着，中国政府将加强迄今为止相对温和的刺激政策。上周六公布的中国8月官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)降至九个月来的最低点。 This week marks the traditional start of autumn in the U.S. and Europe, when investors return from summer holidays and start trading with an eye toward their year-end results. Volumes are expected to pick up─as, potentially, is volatility. 本周在传统上标志着美国和欧洲秋季的开始。每当这个时候，投资者结束暑期休假开始交易，他们的目光紧盯着年终业绩。预计交易量将回升，同时波动性也可能加大。 With the MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index up 9.7% from the 2012 lows that it reached on June 4, investors are looking to see whether the recent gains are sustainable. There is a growing belief that if policy makers fail to meet market expectations, there could be another selloff. 摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲（不含日本）指数(MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index)从今年6月4日创下的年中低点至今上涨9.7%。投资者正在观望最近这波上涨是否能够持续。有越来越多的人认为，如果政策制定者未能满足市场预期，可能会出现另一轮抛售。 In the near term, the news will flow most heavily from Europe, with an ECB policy meeting on Thursday that may produce more clarity on a bond-buying program, followed by a ruling next week by the German Constitutional Court on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism. 在短期内，影响市场的重大消息将主要来自欧洲。本周四召开的欧洲央行政策会议可能会向外界更加清晰地传递有关债券购买计划的信息。下周，德国宪法法院将对欧洲稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism)的合法性做出裁决。
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