China's economy will probably grow by less than 8 per cent this year due to weak international demand and a sluggish domestic real estate market. Now the talk among China-watchers is that it is approaching a peaking point on its path of growth: the episode of high growth is over and the country is heading towards a path in the range of 6-7 per cent.
今年中国的经济增速很可能低于8%，主要是受海外需求疲软以及国内房地产市场降温影响。当前，关注中国经济形势的观察家普遍认为，中国已逼近自身增长路径的转折点——高速增长阶段告一段落，未来中国经济增长率或在6%至7%的区间内徘徊。 This mood is strong inside China. When Justin Yifu Lin, who just returned to China from his position as chief economist of the World Bank, announced China would keep growing by 8 per cent before 2030, the Chinese media dubbed his claim as "shooting a satellite" – a phrase referring to the widespread phenomenon of output exaggeration in the Great Leap-forward of 1958. 这种论调在国内很有市场。当不久前刚卸任世界银行首席经济学家回国的林毅夫预言中国经济有望在2030年以前保持8%的年均增速时，国内媒体纷纷调侃他在"放卫星"——在1958年开始的大跃进期间，"放卫星"常被用于形容普遍存在的夸大产出现象。 China's slowdown is bad news for countries that are linked to its production chain. This includes East and Southeast Asian countries, regions that export to China, as well as China's raw material and energy providers such as Australia, Brazil and the traditional oil producers. However, China's slowdown can be good news for the developed world, especially the US. My colleague Yiping Huang and David Li, professor at Tsinghua University, both believe that the share of household consumption in GDP has increased in the past several years. China's current account surplus also declined substantially to a mere 2.8 per cent of gross domestic product last year. 中国经济增长放缓对于产业链相关国家来说是坏消息，这包括东亚和东南亚地区的对华出口国，澳大利亚、巴西、传统产油国等中国的原材料和能源供给国。但中国经济增速放缓可能利好发达国家，尤其是美国。我的同事黄益平教授以及清华大学的李稻葵教授都认为，过去几年间家庭消费在GDP中所占比重有所上升。去年中国经常项目顺差占GDP比重也大幅下降至仅为2.8%的水平。 There are good reasons to believe China's slowdown is permanent. The growth of China's labour force has been falling since 2010 and by 2020 its stock will start to decline. In accordance, wages are increasing fast; China's episode of cheap growth is approaching its end. On the international stage, the eurozone has fallen into recession again and the light of recovery is still deep in the tunnel. In the US, federal government debts will grow to more than 100 per cent of GDP even by the most conservative estimates. 固然有不少理由可以使人相信中国经济增速放缓将是长期性的。中国劳动人口增速自2010年起持续下滑，并且到2020年劳动人口总数将开始收缩。与此同时，工资水平快速上升；中国经济的低成本增长阶段接近尾声。国际方面，欧元区再度陷入经济衰退，并且复苏希望渺茫；而在美国，即使按最保守的估计，联邦政府债务规模占GDP比重也将突破100%。 However, an international comparison gives hope that China may be able to maintain an 8 per cent growth rate for at least another decade. China's per-capita GDP is about the level of Japan's in 1962 and the level of Korea's in 1982. Both countries grew by 9.7 per cent in the following 10 years after they reached China's per-capita income of today. A contrast is Brazil. It reached China's current per-capita GDP in 1978 but then stagnated for more than 20 years. But the Brazilian case – and for that matter, those of other Latin American countries – is peculiar because its stagnation was triggered by a sovereign debt crisis. China has a sound – even too good by many opinions – international balance of payment and a Latin American-type of crisis is a remote possibility for the country. 但通过与其他国家横向比较，我认为中国经济至少在本十年内有望保持8%的年均增速。中国现阶段人均GDP水平与日本1962年和韩国1982年的水平相当。日韩两国在达到中国当前人均GDP水平后的十年间双双实现了9.7%的年均经济增长。一个反例是巴西，该国1978年即已达到中国现有人均GDP水平，但在其后的二十几年间一直处于停滞状态。不过巴西以及其他拉丁美洲国家的例子具有特殊性，因其经济萧条是由主权债务危机引发的。而中国的国际收支情况良好——很多人甚至认为是过好了——发生拉美式经济危机的可能性很小。
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