America will halve its reliance on Middle East oil by the end of this decade and could end it completely by 2035 due to declining demand and the rapid growth of new petroleum sources in the Western Hemisphere, energy analysts now anticipate.
能源分析师预测，由于需求不断下降和西半球新石油来源的迅速增多，美国将在2020年之前把从中东进口石油的数量削减至一半，并可能在2035年之前彻底摆脱对中东石油的依赖。 The shift, a result of technological advances that are unlocking new sources of oil in shale-rock formations, oil sands and deep beneath the ocean floor, carries profound consequences for the U.S. economy and energy security. A good portion of this surprising bounty comes from the widespread use of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a technique perfected during the last decade in U.S. fields previously deemed not worth tampering with. 这一转变的原因在于，由于技术上的进步，页岩的岩层、油砂和洋底深处的石油资源得以释放。这一转变将为美国经济和能源安全带来深远影响。这一让人惊喜的转变有很大一部分要归功于水力压裂技术。在过去的10年里，水力压裂技术逐渐完善，让过去不被看好的美国油田由此得到开发。 By 2020, nearly half of the crude oil America consumes will be produced at home, while 82% will come from this side of the Atlantic, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By 2035, oil shipments from the Middle East to North America "could almost be nonexistent," the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently predicted, partly because more efficient car engines and a growing supply of renewable fuel will help curb demand. 美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)表示，到2020年，美国自产原油将能够满足将近一半的国内需求，其中82%的资源来自大西洋西岸。石油输出国组织(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)最近预计，到2035年，从中东到北美的石油运输将几乎完全消失，部分原因在于，更节能的汽车引擎和可再生燃料将帮助抑制对石油的需求。 The change achieves a long-sought goal of U.S. policy-making: to draw more oil from nearby, stable sources and less from a volatile region half a world away."Whereas at one point there were real and serious concerns about the ability to maintain sustainable access of supplies to the United States if there were disruptions in the Middle East, that has changed," Carlos Pascual, the top energy official at the State Department, said in an interview. 这个变化实现了美国政策制定者一个长期追求的目标：从周边地区和稳定来源获得更多石油，减少对遥远且动荡不安地区的石油依赖。美国国务院负责能源事务的最高官员帕斯夸尔(Carlos Pascual)在接受采访时说，尽管曾经一度确实有人担忧如果中东石油供应出现中断，美国能否保持可持续的石油供应，但是如今这种状况已经改变。 U.S. officials stress that the Middle East will remain important to American foreign policy partly because of the region's continuing influence on global oil prices. "We need to continue to pay attention to how global markets function, because we have a fundamental interest that those markets are stable," Mr. Pascual said. 美国官员强调说，中东在美国的外交政策中依然处于重要位置，部分原因在于该地区将继续对全球石油价格造成影响。帕斯夸尔说，我们需要继续关注全球市场的运转，因为市场稳定符合我们的根本利益。 That means the U.S. military will keep guarding the region's oil shipping lanes, as it has done for decades. "Nobody else can protect it and if it were no longer available, U.S. oil prices would go up," said Michael O'Hanlon, a national security expert with the Brookings Institution, who says the U.S. spends $50 billion a year protecting oil shipments. But China, a growing consumer of Middle Eastern crude, is seeking a larger presence in the region, with its navy joining antipiracy efforts near Somalia. 这意味着美国军方将沿袭几十年来的做法，继续保卫该地区石油运输线路的安全。布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的防务专家奥汉隆(Michael O'Hanlon)说，没有任何一个其他国家能够保护该地区的石油运输线路，如果这些线路不能正常使用，美国的石油价格将会上涨。奥汉隆说，美国每年花费500亿美元保护石油运输线路。越来越依赖中东原油的中国也在寻求扩大在该地区的影响力，中国的海军已经参与了在索马里附近实施的打击海盗行动。 Still, growing domestic energy production could allow the U.S. to lessen its focus on the unpredictable region over time. Dependence on Middle East oil has shaped American foreign, national-security and defense policies for most of the last half century. It helped drive the U.S. into active participation in the search for Arab-Israeli peace; drove Washington into close alignments with the monarchies of the Persian Gulf states; compelled it to side with Iraq during its war with Iran; prompted it to then turn against Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait, pinging about the first Persian Gulf war; and prompted Washington to then build up and sustain its militarypresence in the region.
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