It may take months to discover whether the actions taken by last week's Group of 20 summit in London are enough to rescue the world economy from a prolonged recession, if not depression. The substance of its conclusions will have to convince capital markets, global financial institutions, investors and humble consumers that they can start to spend, borrow or lend again.
上周20国集团(G20)伦敦峰会采取的行动是否足以拯救世界经济于持续衰退(如果不是萧条的话)，可能需要几个月时间才能明朗。该峰会的实质内容必须要让资本市场、全球金融机构、投资者和渺小的消费者确信：他们又可以开始支出、借款或放贷了。
But the symbolism of the event may be more important than the substance. For even if the G20 countries are a strange ad hoc selection, initially brought together by the Asian financial crisis in 1997, they represent a whole new element in the world order. They are not the Group of Seven - the club of western powers and Japan - or the G8 (the G7 plus Russia). The use of the G20 at this moment of global crisis is a clear indication that the old order has outlived its time.
但是，本次峰会的象征意义也许比实质内容更重要。因为即使G20成员国是一个奇怪的无规律组合，最初因为1997年的亚洲金融危机而汇聚到一起开会，但它们在世界秩序中代表着一个全新元素。它们不是7国集团(G7)，即西方列强俱乐部加上日本，也不是G8，即G7加上俄罗斯。在全球危机的这一关口动用 G20，是一个明确的迹象，说明旧的秩序已经过时了。
Another pointer came four months ago when the US National Intelligence Council, part of Washington's security apparatus, published a startling forecast. The international system as constructed after the second world war would, it predicted, be "unrecognisable" by 2025, thanks to globalisation, the rise of emerging powers and "an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from west to east".
另一个迹象是在4个月前浮现的，当时美国安全部门“国家情报委员会”(National Intelligence Council, NIC)发表了一份惊人的预测。其中预计，在第二次世界大战后构建的国际体系，到2025年将变得“难以辨认”，原因包括全球化、新兴强国的崛起，以及“ 财富和经济实力相对地从西方到东方的历史性转移”。
"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," the document declared. "Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th-century scenario of arms races, territorial expansion, and military rivalries."
“今后20年间，向一个新体系的过渡将充满风险，”这份文件宣告。“战略对立最有可能围绕贸易、投资、技术创新以及收购出现，但我们也不能排除军备竞赛、领土扩张，以及军事对立等19世纪的情形。”
That report was largely written before the full force of the financial and economic crisis had become apparent. Nevertheless, its authors were convinced that the "unipolar moment" of unchallenged US hegemony after the Berlin Wall came down was already drawing to an end. The future world order would be "multipolar".
这份报告基本上是在本次金融和经济危机的严重程度完全呈现之前写成的。不过，其作者当时已经确信，柏林墙倒塌后美国霸权不受挑战的“单极时刻”行将终结。未来的世界秩序将是“多极”的。
（责任编辑:doublejp）
