In contrast, small and middling countries, including all European states, face a different trade-off. They would only enjoy a muted demand stimulus from unilateral fiscal relaxation; so enmeshed are t
In contrast, small and middling countries, including all European states, face a different trade-off. They would only enjoy a muted demand stimulus from unilateral fiscal relaxation; so enmeshed are they in international trade, much of the effect would seep across their borders. Size also makes bond investors a greater flight risk. Even the Italian sovereign bond market – well supported by domestic investors and the world’s third-largest – is, it turns out, easy to exit en masse.
与美日形成反差的是，中小国家（包括所有欧洲国家）面临着不同的取舍。单边财政放松只会带来温和的需求刺激；由于它们深度参与国际贸易，因此很多刺激效果将渗漏到国界之外。此外，它们的规模意味着债券投资者逃离的风险更大。事实证明，就连意大利主权债券市场（受到国内投资者的大力支持，并且是全球第三大国债市场）也很容易大举撤出。
This does not justify the eurozone’s official ideology of universal austerity. Many euro countries have ample fiscal space and should wield deficit spending as a tool to counter slow growth or recession. Only those with very large deficits, huge debt burdens or both have no choice but to cut, and cut hard. That includes the three states with rescue programmes, but not Spain.
这说明欧元区普遍紧缩的官方理念是不合理的。很多欧元区国家拥有充足的财政空间，应当将赤字开支当作一种工具，以遏制缓慢增长或衰退。只有那些拥有巨额赤字、背负沉重债务负担（或二者兼有）的国家才没有选择，只能削减赤字，而且要大力削减。这包括3个正在实施纾困计划的国家，但不包括西班牙。
In Britain, fiscal laxity would do more harm than good (though how the cuts fall could be improved). Its structural deficit is exceeded only by the US, Japan and Ireland among advanced countries. Investors who take fright can easily shift money apoad. Critics of the ruling coalition’s policy say low gilt yields mean investors want the government to borrow more. But this treats markets’ welcome of a multiyear deficit reduction plan as if it were a prayer for the high deficit to be maintained.
在英国，财政放松弊大于利（尽管在如何削减的问题上存在改进空间）。在发达国家中，英国的结构性赤字仅次于美国、日本和爱尔兰。恐慌的投资者可以轻易把资金转移到海外。对英国联合政府的政策提出批评的人士表示，英国国债的低收益率意味着，投资者希望政府借贷更多。但这话就像把市场对多年减赤计划的欢迎，看成是在祈祷保持高水平赤字。
They also say the Bank of England, unlike the European Central Bank, can be trusted to keep gilt yields low. But the BoE is independent. It would take a true catastrophe for it to be willing to buy as many gilts as it takes to guarantee the government low borrowing costs. Even if it did fill the shoes of panicking gilt investors, such a scenario would hardly contain funding costs for UK banks apoad or make British businesses eager to invest and employ.
批评人士还表示，与欧洲央行(ECB)不同，人们可以相信英国央行(Bank of England)会让英国国债收益率维持低位。但英国央行是独立的。要让英国央行愿意为了压低政府借款成本而无止境地购买英国国债，那就需要发生一场真正的大灾难。即便它果真代替了恐慌的英国国债投资者，这种情景也很难抑制英国各银行在海外的融资成本，也不会让英国企业积极投资和招聘。
Only globally co-ordinated fiscal policy can improve the trade-off faced by small and middling economies. A true growth compact – which should be global, not just European – could let risky states run a slightly less tight ship if safe states bore the punt of boosting demand. This would take greater leadership than we have yet seen.
只有经过全球协调的财政政策，才能改善中小经济体面对的取舍权衡。一项真正的增长契约——它应当是全球性的，而不仅仅是欧洲范围的——可以让有风险的国家多一点回旋空间，而让稳健的国家承担提振需求的主要负担。这将需要比我们迄今见到的更大的领导力。译者:梁艳裳
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