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口译材料:中国股市为何不涨

<< 返回考试资料 2012-09-24来源:口译
When it announced new stock listing rules over the weekend, the Chinese securities regulator was trying to end a decade of underachievement. 当中国的证券监管机构在周末期间公布新股发行新规时,它试图终结中国股市

When it announced new stock listing rules over the weekend, the Chinese securities regulator was trying to end a decade of underachievement.

  当中国的证券监管机构在周末期间公布新股发行新规时,它试图终结中国股市过去十年中表现不佳的局面。

  The best economic growth story of the 21st century has been a poor investment play. While its gross domestic product has shot up, China's equity market has languished.

  21世纪最强的经济增长神话没能造就一次绝佳的投资良机。尽管中国的国内生产总值(GDP)迅速增长,但中国股票市场的发展却步履维艰。

  Part of the blame has been an initial public offering system that consistently overprices shares, to the benefit of newly listed companies and their underwriters. Those buying into IPOs on their first day of trading have lost money, and the mass of ordinary investors in China has slowly lost confidence in stocks.

  之所以会有这样的反差,部分原因在于中国的首次公开发行(IPO)体制。在该体制下时常会出现新股定价过高的状况,从而有利于上市公司以及它们的承销商。而那些在交易首日买入新股的投资者则会出现亏损,如此一来,中国的广大普通投资者也就渐渐对股市失去了信心。

  More pre-listing disclosures and greater institutional participation in pricing – the reforms detailed on Sunday – should add some stability to China's casino-like markets. Guo Shuqing, the reformist who was appointed securities regulator six months ago, has also tried to limit insider trading.

  4月28日公布的改革内容包括加大上市前的信息披露力度,并让机构更多地参与定价环节。这些举措应该能为赌场一般的中国股市带来更大的稳定性。6个月前受命出任中国证监会(CSRC)主席的改革派人士郭树清还试图抑制内幕交易。

  But he is fighting a paradox seen throughout emerging markets and typified by China: high gross domestic product growth often goes hand-in-hand with lousy stock returns.

  然而,他要与这样一个矛盾作斗争:在GDP高速增长的同时,与之相伴的往往却是股市回报率的低迷。这种现象是整个新兴市场的共性,尤以中国的情况最为典型。

  "Companies raising money, not investors, have done well off the stock market. The vast majority of investors have had no way to profit," says Ye Tan, a financial commentator.

  财经评论员叶檀指出:“在市场上获利的主要是融资者,而不是投资者。绝大部分投资者都无法从市场上获利。”

  If China's GDP were a security you could buy, it would have delivered strong returns. The value of China's annual output nearly quintupled from 2000 to 2011, which would have made it one of the best investments in the world.

  如果中国的GDP是一款能够购买的证券产品,它将带来丰厚的回报。2000年至2011年期间,中国的年度经济产值增长了近四倍,这会使它成为世界上最超值的投资产品之一。

  But GDP is not a security. The Shanghai Composite Index, something you can invest in, has a much weaker record. It rose about 46 per cent over the past decade, barely keeping pace with inflation. How can China's growth have been so fast and its stocks so sluggish?

  但GDP不是一种证券。上证综指(Shanghai Composite Index),一种名副其实的投资品,它的表现就要逊色许多。该指数在过去十年间上涨约46%,勉强与通胀水平同步。中国的经济增长如此之快而股市表现却如此乏力,这种状况究竟是如何造成的?

  The first thing to note is that China is far from an aberration. GDP is crucial to understanding economic performance, but it has proven a bad predictor of equity returns. As Jay Ritter of the University of Florida and other economists have documented, there is no stable relationship between GDP and stock performance.

  首先要指出,中国并没有偏离正常的轨道。GDP对于理解经济表现有着至关重要的意义,但对股市回报率而言,GDP的预测作用就要大打折扣了。正如佛罗里达大学(University of Florida)的杰伊?里特(Jay Ritter)及其他经济学家所指出的,GDP与股市表现之间并不存在一种稳定的关系。

  China illustrates two key reasons why fast-growing countries often disappoint investors.

  至于快速增长的经济体为何屡屡让投资者失望,中国给出了两大重要原因。

  First, there is a simple question of maturity. China's stock market was established only two decades ago, so it would have been extremely surprising if it had behaved like long-established bourses in developed economies. Many of the biggest components of the Shanghai Composite Index, including the top banks, listed after 2005.

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