If so, it won't be long before the RBA has to act even if the Australian dollar falls to below parity with the U.S. greenback, a drop that would be welcomed by industries such as tourism and manufactu
If so, it won't be long before the RBA has to act even if the Australian dollar falls to below parity with the U.S. greenback, a drop that would be welcomed by industries such as tourism and manufacturing, which haven't seen the benefits of what policy makers still call a 'once in a century' mining boom.
如果真的已经见顶，那么即使澳元汇率降至1美元以下，不久之后澳大利亚央行也将不得不采取行动。旅游和制造等行业没有从决策者仍然称为“百年一遇”的矿业投资潮中获利，它们乐见澳元跌破1美元的水平。
In previous slumps, Australia's currency has suffered dramatic swings. In 2008, when commodity prices crashed-iron ore fell by about 60%-Australia's dollar fell 40% in value against the U.S. greenback in a matter of weeks to a low around US$0.60. The RBA was forced to intervene by buying the currency directly in support of fiscal stimulus from the government.
澳元汇率在以往矿业低迷期间曾经历大起大落。2008年，大宗商品价格崩盘，铁矿石跌幅达到60%左右，在短短几周内，澳元即对美元贬值40%，跌至0.60美元左右的低位。澳大利亚央行被迫直接收购澳元进行干预来支持政府的财政刺激。
But the RBA recently said that the Aussie dollar may not follow commodity prices lower as it did in 2008, because of demand for the currency and Australia's triple-A-rated sovereign bonds that has come from the world's central banks over the past year. That in turn has made managing the currency, which is trading around US$1.03, tricky for policy makers.
但澳大利亚央行最近表示，澳元可能不会像2008年那样跟随大宗商品价格走低，因为过去一年世界多家央行对澳元和澳大利亚AAA评级的主权债券都有强烈的需求。而这又加大了决策者管理汇率的难度。目前澳元在1.03美元左右。
'In terms of the economy, one of the things that has hurt far more than interest rates is the strength of the currency,' said Mike Smith, chief executive of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., in an interview. 'I think the Reserve Bank was probably surprised by the amount of Aussie dollars purchased by sovereign wealth funds and other central banks.'
澳新银行集团(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.)首席执行长史密斯(Mike Smith)接受采访时说，汇率走强等因素对经济的伤害远远大于利率，我认为，主权财富基金和其他央行所购澳元的数量可能超出了澳大利亚央行的意料。
Adding to the RBA's dilemma is the government's pledge to erase a 44 billion Australian dollar (US$45.3 billion) budget deficit by the end of the fiscal year. That promise to voters made by the Labor-led administration of Prime Minister Julia Gillard is now likely to require additional fiscal measures and put pressure on the RBA to use rates to support economic growth.
让澳大利亚央行更加左右为难的是，政府承诺将在本财年削减440亿澳元(453亿美元)的财政赤字。这是总理吉拉德(Julia Gillard)以工党为首的政府对选民的承诺。目前来看，这一承诺可能需要政府采取进一步的财政措施才能兑现，同时也有可能使央行不得不采用利率手段来支撑经济增长。
A spokeswoman for the RBA declined to comment.
澳大利亚央行发言人拒绝置评。
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